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I'm not certain what you mean by guesstimate, but my materials usage seems to work out when I multiply the length of rails by four, and assume a certain coverage per square foot for a given product. That is my method for estimating the "actual surface area" as you call it. I generally finish within a gallon of my estimated stain usage per job, and have run shy only once this year.
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Larry
I have seen contractors go to great lengths to measure the surface area of a baluster then multiply that out by the number of balusters in the hand rail. The would then do the same for the posts, rails caps and so on. This is a very precise method of determining the surface area so could deliver an even closer "estimate" of material usage.
In construction they call it stick estimating. Some builders will break the "cost" of building a home down to the screws and glue. Others don't go much beyond speculating that it will cost roughly "X" dollars per square foot.
When I say "guesstimate" I just mean that it is often much faster/easier to make an educated guess. As you said, you went the entire season never being off more than a gallon. You save tons of time by just using the static number four (4) on all rails rather than measure for the slight differences that occur from one rail to the next. So lets say that by actually measuring everything precisely you could cut that down to 1/2 gallon. The question becomes is it worth the extra time to narrow your margin of error by 1/2 gallon.
Sure doesn't seem like it to me.
I don't doubt your closing prowess. I was just speaking in general to the guy who might be less comfortable at the closing table. Sounds like you've got your marketing dialed in. When you've got the right message in front of the audience closing is as easy as doing them a favor.
Do you think there is any thing in particular about your message that works so well among the more discerning audience that you target?